How a Trump Presidency May Affect the Beauty Industry

Hello, my friend. Welcome back to The Modern Hair Stylist podcast. So, the day after the election, I posted on my Instagram story and I asked you guys if I should be messy, and if I should make a how a Donald Trump presidency may affect the beauty industry episode, and an overwhelming amount of you guys wanted this episode, so here I am being messy, putting myself on the line, and making this damn episode. This has by far been one of the most difficult episodes for me to record.

I have taken tons of takes of it, because my intention in making this episode is only to educate and give you something to think about. I really wanna make sure that I do my best to make it so you don't feel fearful or discouraged after this episode, and so I'm going to try my best to come from a standpoint that is hopeful and just strictly business, and that is non-biased as well. So, I'm gonna be sharing with you all of the good, all of the bad. I'm going to be sharing with you only my best-educated guesses and theories based upon what Donald Trump has said he believes as far as policy goes, and what his intentions are when he's in office, and then figure out how that may affect the economy, and then how that may affect you.

With that being said, I want to make it clear that I personally am somebody who viscerally believes in human rights, and unfortunately, this administration has ran on anti-human rights in a very outward and disgusting way. That includes threats to gender-affirming care for trans people, and not just trans people, just humans in general, because newsflash, gender-affirming care is not just for trans people. Um, the right for somebody to choose what they do with their body and their futures, women or any person, the right for people to work and contribute to the economy of this United States without getting torn apart from their families and being bothered when they are such a massive backbone to this fucking country, the right to people of color, particularly Black people, to live in safety and not live in fear every single day because of the possibility of unchecked violence from institutions, and the unfortunate reality that a lot of the time, there are no consequences when unnecessary violence is taken out upon marginalized communities, all of the above and then some are human fucking rights, and are not politics. These are all things that it's, it's so disgusting that any person may think are okay, and I wanna make that super clear as far as that is my own personal standpoint.

Now, with that being said, the rest of this episode is going to just be analytical, non-biased, and straightforward, but I felt like I had to make that clear. Now, if you are somebody who doesn't agree with me today, I'm going to absolutely open the door and invite you to have a conversation with me, or if you have any thoughts about anything I say in general, absolutely send me a DM on Instagram @hairbyhunty and we can totally talk about it. What I'm going to request is that you don't leave me a bad review, 'cause that is just you being a fucking shitty, stupid person, right? So, don't do that.

I'm opening the door to your interpret- interpretation and your beliefs in my DMs. Do not do that in a public platform, just 'cause that's not cool. Bad review's not the end of the world, and I teach you guys that as far as your businesses go, but it's not fun to have. So, don't give me a fucking bad review just because you don't believe in what I'm saying.

Again, I am going to try to approach the rest of this episode in the most non-biased way possible, strictly talk policy and economy, and how that may affect the beauty industry. Now, if you are somebody who is a little bit fearful of the future, if you are really scared of the unknown and you're thinking, "Oh my God, my business is doomed, or the economy is doomed," or whatever it may be, I want you to just take a step back and take things day by day. I don't want you to react or act differently because of the possibility of something happening in the future, because we have no idea how this cookie is actually going to crumble, and you know what you need to do to grow your business, and risk-taking is essential in getting the growth that you need. And in times of uncertainty, in times of the highest fear possible, businesses, some of the greatest businesses, have taken massive swings and have been able to skyrocket their success because of that.

So, don't be afraid to keep doing the thing that you intended to do because of whatever is happening right now or whatever you feel like is going to happen, even this podcast episode. I'm not sharing this stuff with you today with some sort of, "Okay, this is gonna happen, so therefore you should start doing this." I'm just going to be stating predictions so that way you can have something to think about, so people who don't normally think about this stuff can get educated about it, and then we can move forward and just take our businesses day by day by day. I am here to always have your back in making it so you are privy to what is going on in the world and the economy and consumer behavior around our beauty industry, and I will let you know if there's anything that I think that you need to do differently.

And that's why it's so important that you lean into mentors, community, education, that is staying up to date, that is innovative, and isn't just based upon a past experience, but is based upon what the hell is going on right now. And that's my intention with this podcast, with my programs, everything, to keep you up to date, have your back no matter what happens, and that is my commitment to you, my friend. You have nothing to worry about. Everything will be okay.

Just keep it pushing forward, all right? With all of that being said, let's get into my predictions for how a Donald Trump presidency may affect the beauty industry. Let's go. So, I recorded that intro separately, so one last disclaimer that I forgot to share is that I am by no means claiming to be a fortune teller here.

Like, I'm not saying, "In four years from today, listen to this episode and I will be right about everything." Like, no ma'am, that is just weird behavior to me, and I don't believe that anybody knows how this cookie is gonna crumble, and these are just my...... thoughts, my predictions based upon the best knowledge that I have, the best research that I've done, and what is at my disposal. So, don't come for me, honey, because these are genuinely just things for you to think about and just my personal predictions as of right now.

So, without further ado, let's get it popping. Alrighty, so we're gonna be covering a multitude of topics today. We're gonna be talking about tariffs, tax policy, healthcare, immigration, deregulation, and how that all affects you at the end of the day. Like I said, I'm gonna be going into the bad and the good.

At the end of this episode, I'm gonna be answering a question that I got in my DMs that has to do with you as a business owner and, and if you are personally affected or emotionally heightened around, um, these political times and you have opposing views to your clients, how do you approach that? And then I'm also going to be, uh, sharing with you a little bit about how you as a beauty professional can support LGBTQ+ people in this time, um, in a unique and really hopeful way, in my opinion. Me and Barbara had this conversation, and she encouraged me to share this message because I think that it could be very useful for a lot of people right now. So, I'm gonna be sharing those things at the end.

But first, let's get into some policies. So, I know that tariffs are a really big thing that people are talking about and thinking about right now, particularly within our industry, because there's a belief that it may increase the cost of doing business, and I unfortunately agree. So, Donald Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on any imports from outside of the United States on the companies that are importing those goods. So, for example, you may purchase your foils or your gloves or your color from a company, whether they are in the United States or whether they're from outside of the United States.

Either way, a lot of the goods that are used to manufacture those products that they then sell to you are sourced from outside of the United States. So, the ingredients in your product bottles or the certain materials that they're using to create that equipment are all too often from outside of the United States, because within the United States, manufacturing is expensive. Purchasing those things from, uh, the United States is expensive. And just frankly, we, a lot of the time, don't have those resources within the United States for these companies to be able to actually source their goods from the United States.

Now, the whole ince- the whole purpose of Donald Trump wanting to do this is to bring more US manufacturing into the United States and encourage that to happen, which will create more jobs. It can stabilize the supply chain. It can be a good thing overall. However, with the resources that we have and the amount of time that it may take for us to make progress with that, in the meantime, what we can most likely expect to see is these companies that we purchase from that will then have to take on these tariffs, because these companies are going to be the ones who are paying these tariffs on their goods that they're sourcing from outside of the United States.

Those companies, now that they have an increase in cost of doing business, they may increase the prices on their products in order to make up for that. So therefore, that increases your cost of doing business because now the goods that you need to purchase or the products or the tools, whatever it may be, are now going to be more expensive. This is something that we can likely see if tariffs actually do happen. And I just want to say, you know, I know that sucks.

I know that we've been through this enough already in the past couple of years. We have already seen our cost of business go up in massive rates. But I will share with you, too, that you have been through it before, you can get through it again, and you do have the power to raise your prices as well. So, you as a business owner have options, and you just have to keep pushing forward in growing your business so you can grow your profit margin so you can afford things when or if the cost of doing business goes up.

So, it will be okay, my friend, although it may suck, all right? And then we have tax policies. So, you know, Donald Trump and the Republican Party in general is very much for tax cuts, particularly for upper-middle-class individuals. And oftentimes, upper-middle-class individuals are great salon clients and make up a big pool of the salon clients that we rely on for a lot of our income and stability and utilization.

And so, that could be really great for us because it could give these people, who are technically ideal salon clients, um, uh, the feeling of having more expendable income. Therefore, they may want to reprioritize you in their budget, and we could see a big wave of more upper-middle-class people coming back into the salons, which is really great news for us. It'll make marketing and acquiring new clients a little bit easier, and not just for upper-mi- upper-middle-class consumers, but for everybody overall if there are tax cuts for everybody overall. So, that is definitely some good news, particularly in a time right now in which a lot of consumers, even upper-middle-class people, um, don't feel like they have expendable income or they are feeling a little bit more fearful about how they spend their money.

Tax cuts could possibly incentivize them to want to go back into salons and spend money in those more luxurious ways. Trump has also talked about tax-free tips, which could be fantastic for you as a beauty professional if you see it that way. I am personally of the belief that I do not mind paying taxes as long as the tax money is going to where it needs to go and should go in my own personal beliefs. Um, however, you know, at the end of the day, that does make it so you get to keep more of that money and put it into your pocket, so it technically is a good thing for each individual.

Um, so if that actually were to come about or, or come to fruition, then that could possibly be a great thing for you and increase your bottom line. And then, of course, we know one of the biggest things that this administration is running on is a crackdown on immigration. And so, what we may be looking at is mass deportations. What I believe may happen with this is, a lot of the companies that you purchase from right now and the factories that they purchase from, the manufacturing all of, of all of that, a lot of them rely on immigrants for their labor...

labor force. And unfortunately, a lot of immigrants are oftentimes exploited for cheap labor and poor working conditions. And so, if we experience a massive deportation and we lose a large part of our physical labor workforce that supports these companies and supports the economy in a large way. So with that, what may happen is, as these companies lose all of these people who were putting up with a lower wage and poor working conditions, it may be difficult for them to be able to replace that workforce with people who are willing to put up with the lower wages or the poorer working conditions.

And just in general, they're going to be losing l- a lot of manpower in the meantime, and that is going to take a big hit on these companies, which is going to be difficult for the economy in general, and yet another thing that may encourage these companies to increase their prices, therefore increasing your cost of doing business. Another thing that I think would be interesting to talk about here is the possibility of deregulation. So whenever you're dealing with a conservative viewpoint, and particularly a Donald Trump viewpoint in government, you're normally gunning for small government involvement in business. And so the belief is, is that the less government involvement or the less regulation in business, the easier it is for a business to thrive, and then therefore contributes to the overall economy because you're removing barriers that may hinder the business from just doing what they do best on a day-to-day basis.

So, some of that is good. Some of that can possibly make your life a lot easier as, as far as not having to worry about small, little inconvenient employment laws or dealing with filing and reporting and paying different fees for things. And so some of that is good 'cause it, yes, will make your job as a business owner and being a business owner a little bit easier and less confusing. So, that can be a good thing.

On the flip side of that, what we could possibly see is maybe less regulation around licensing, um, for being a cosmetologist. Now, I think it's important to mention that, of course, when we're talking about the presidency, we're talking about federal-level policy versus state-level policy. And a lot of regulation that is industry-specific is normally varying state by state and in control by your state. But as far as employment goes, or wages goes overall, that a lot of the time has to do with federal level.

And then, of course, federal level, especially when you have the dominance of a Republican, uh, uh, viewpoint in federal government, that can oftentimes trickle down into state level and influence state-level decisions as far as, possibly, the beauty industry goes. And so, we may also be looking at the deregulation of licensure within our industries state to state. We are already seeing a trend of this over the past couple years, with it being easier for individuals to be able to get their cosmetology license or just completely remove cosmetology license requirements in general. I know that in my state, Pennsylvania, literally, like, a year or two before I took my cosmetology test, they had removed the technical tests, and I only had to take a written test.

So, you even are seeing that right now. And with a more conservative viewpoint in power and in control, or that has more influence, you will oftentimes see more deregulation overall across all industries. Now, you could look at the good side of this in which this gives more people opportunities to be able to take advantage of this craft and to be able to make impacts in the local communities that you are in and that they are in. And it might be great for salon owners or people who are looking to hire, because now you have a larger labor market to be able to pull from when you are hiring.

So, there are good things to this. However, I think a lot of people believe that deregulation is not a good thing because you have uneducated people coming into the industry, and they can just start and open up their own beauty business without any sort of training or thorough understanding of how to make sure that things are sanitary and you're not spreading disease. And since these people have such a low barrier to entry, and it could possibly saturate the market even more, these people could also be really competitive as far as how much they actually charge. So then therefore, you have increased competition because the person down the street who didn't go to beauty school is charging half the price for a haircut or something like that, right?

Or you will have overall distrust with our industry because you may see these unlicensed people who don't know how to keep things healthy and sanitary, possibly causing infection, therefore lowering trust in our industry and beauty professionals in general, because you hear and see these horror stories, right? So, there's good and bad to this, and all of these are just predictions, and I think that this is a very nuanced conversation, of course, so take that in consideration. But I just, just think it's something to think about. Another thing with deregulation is employment laws around what is a contractor versus what is an employee.

So, what is W-2 versus 1099? And we all know that misclassification already runs rampant within this industry. And the point of employment laws, in general, that defines what a W-2 employee is versus a contractor is put in place to make sure that employees have certain protections and get access to certain benefits that they deserve, access to certain pay that they deserve. And of course, that may be good news for some salon owners, and that may be bad news for some employees.

It's all up to interpretation, but these are some of the things that we could possibly be looking at as far as deregulation goes. Another thing that I think we should be thinking about, possibly, is the Affordable Care Act. Now, recently, in this election specifically, Donald Trump hasn't really talked much about the Affordable Care Act. He said that he didn't necessarily have any plans to repeal it, but he did say that he had plans to improve it.

And we know in the past, Donald Trump has talked about just completely repealing it in general. And I think that it's really important to think about this, because a lot of our industry, unfortunately, does not have access to affordable health care. And we know that unless you are working for a... very corporatized or very franchised salon who is doing very well, that it's very rare that you'll find healthcare options as an employee of a salon.

And not to mention, if you're your own independent business owner, which I know the majority of my listeners are, um, a lot of the time you have no options for healthcare besides paying straight out of pocket, and un- unfortunately paying a very high premium for that, um, unless you can lean into a partner's, uh, health insurance through their company that they work for. With the Affordable Care Act being kind of threatened, that may be a little bit of bad news or scary for some individuals within our industry, because that may be the only option that they have as far as affordable healthcare goes, and so that could be something that may raise the cost of you doing business or just being a human and existing in general. Another thing that I see happening, just because of the trends that we're already seeing in the past couple years and then, of course, the nature of this election, is consumer behavior will increasingly move towards shopping with core values. So I've talked about this a little bit in the past couple years, and even in recent ep- episodes about how, right now, consumers are very much shopping with their core values in mind, which could mean they're looking for people who are sustainable as far as their practices go, they're looking for people who use clean ingredients, they're looking for people who believe in human rights and the specific human rights that they believe in, right?

And so, I think this is actually a great opportunity for those of you who have strong core beliefs, an- and if you are willing to weave that into your business or if you already do, to increase loyalty in the people that you serve, um, and to attract people who may be looking for new spaces in which they may feel a little bit more comfortable in supporting a business that's aligned with them versus the business that may not be aligned with them that they may be leaving. So you may see even new clients come to see you because they left their last salon because that last salon had these beliefs and you have these beliefs and they align with your beliefs more. So speaking of clients being in alignment with your core values as a businessowner, I had a listener write in to me in DMs and say, "I have a client who is posting JD Vance and Trump pictures, and it made me sick to my stomach. While I own a business, I don't want that kind of person sitting in my chair.

I know emotions are high right now, but it genuinely makes me sick. Maybe it's dramatic, but what do you think about this in terms of operating a business and its relationship to one's moral beliefs?" So, this is a tough question. What I will first off say is that you are absolutely not alone.

I think, uh, for a lot of my listeners particularly, I think that this has always been a tough point as far as you being a service provider and the nature of our industry being so personal and us having such personal conversations with our clients, and our clients feeling like they can open up to us in certain ways. And this stuff can feel really hard to navigate, and it can be very discouraging. It can feel very slimy to be taking care of somebody in your chair who does not have the same beliefs as you. I think it's important, although I don't believe that there are excuses for not believing in human rights, I, at the same time, do believe that people are oftentimes coerced into the beliefs that they have.

I believe that people are oftentimes misinformed. I believe that propaganda and fear is what really, truly drives a lot of people to believe certain things, and I'm not necessarily talking about this specific case scenario. I'm talking about any belief in general. And I think that you, as a human being who believes what you believe, have the power to change somebody's perspective just by existing and having that other viewpoint.

And having these people who come in and out of your space every single day, you are leaving a mark on those people in one way or another, in small and large ways, that could possibly change their viewpoint, right? And so, I think that it's important to evaluate the privilege that you have, the power that you have, and evaluate, "Do I have the strength or the willpower to have this person sit in my chair? Because I know that if I give this person space, I actually have the opportunity to change their mind and then therefore make a difference in the world." Or, if you feel deeply uncomfortable because this person's beliefs specifically affect you and your life and how you live in your life, then I think it's absolutely okay for you to evaluate whether or not you would like to do business with this person moving forward or not.

It's completely up to you, and it's not a one-size-fits-all answer, and it's something that's very difficult to navigate. Nonetheless, I'm sending you and anybody who is dealing with this same thing a lot of love, because it is extremely difficult to navigate. Being a person who has such personal relationships with humans and deals with just humans on such an individual and intimate basis is very hard. And being a businessowner and having to make these decisions is also very hard, and so I'm sending you my love, and I hope that I at least gave you something to think about that will help you in your decisions.

Now, the last thing that I wanna do in this episode is just share that if you are somebody who does really, truly believe in the rights of LGBTQ+ individuals, particularly in gender-affirming care for trans and queer individuals, um, I just wanna remind you that one of the biggest parts of gender-affirming care is actually what you do every day behind the chair. Every single time you make somebody feel more confident in themselves, you are giving somebody affirmation in who they are and how they present, uh, to the world, right? Although those things may be threatened right now, or there's a lot of uncertainty with how those things will be accessible to human beings, you, my friend, have a lot of power to continuously offer those safe spaces and offer those transformations for people in which they could possibly not get in a lot of other parts of their lives. And so, I recommend that you check out my free LGBTQ+ inclusivity course for salons and hairstylists.

Um, you can go to hunterdoni.com/pride and just put in your first name and email, and we'll send you over that course for free right to your email. So, with all of that being said, I want to share with you my absolute love and my support. This could be a time in which you are really optimistic for the future.

Maybe this was a very great outcome for you. And by all means, I hope that that is the case. On the flip side, this could be very scary for you. You may feel very uncertain about the future, and you may feel very hopeless, and you may be thinking, "What the hell is even the world right now?"

and you're questioning your entire existence. I wanna share with you that there are tons, tons of people, more than you realize, out there that are feeling the exact same way as you, and we are all in this together. And I personally, with the platform that I have and what I do every single day, intend to show up in the most supportive way possible, in the best way that I know how, to make it so no matter what happens, we are still making a great impact in the world and our own local communities. And then, of course, staying up-to-date with what is going on so I can give you the best advice possible for no matter what happens.

I have got your back, my friends. Everything will be okay. So much love to you. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Peace out, girl scout.

End of transcript. © 2024 Hunter Donia LLC.